Daily Archives: December 10, 2013

Predicting the future

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In my opinion, the only reliable way to predict the future (beyond a few years) is to get yourself frozen and then wake up in it.
Also, if you are a fan of the still-sort-of-fashionable complexity theory (or indeed any modern policy theory), you will know that it is difficult to predict *the present* when policies are made which involve people carrying them out or otherwise contributing to the outcomes. So, I don’t know how anyone can make a 50 year (detailed) political prediction without smiling and winking.
By lucky chance, I discuss some of these policy themes in the ‘1000 words’ section up at the top there.

 

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See also McBusted has been to the Year 3000 and it predicts a higher income tax in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK

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