‘Hard Brexit’ is not yet a game changer for Scottish Independence

The Herald reports that ‘Hard Brexit is not a game changer for SNP’. Based on its latest BMG poll, it describes an even split between those who want/ don’t want a second referendum on Scottish independence, and between those who want an early or late referendum.

These results don’t seem too surprising because the idea of Brexit is still too abstract and not yet related to the arguments that might win the day for a Yes vote. I think the basic story would relate to a combination of simple statements such as:

  • England is pulling Scotland out of the EU against our will
  • The Tories caused this problem
  • We want to clear up the mess that they caused
  • It’s a bit rich for the Tories to warn us about the disastrous economic consequences of Scottish independence after the havoc they just caused
  • We want to be a cosmopolitan Scotland, not little England

In each case, I don’t think we can expect to see the widespread effect of such arguments because (a) they don’t yet form part of a coherent argument linked directly to Brexit, because (b) we still don’t yet know what Brexit looks like.

If you don’t really know what something is, how it relates to your life, and who you should blame for that outcome, how can you express a view on its effect on your political preferences?

image for POLU9SP


Filed under Scottish independence, Scottish politics

2 responses to “‘Hard Brexit’ is not yet a game changer for Scottish Independence

  1. These are early days of Brexit. One thing is clear that the British political establishment was not (at still is not) ready to handle this unprecedented task. Everyone in Britain and in Europe with similar aspirations will be watching the process. Its outcomes, already in medium term (but hardly something tangible as it is project-in-progress), would give a hint to them (including SNP) on how to adapt their strategies to this kind of reality. The first referendum in Scotland was a well-calculated winning strategy for SNP (independently of the outcome, they were set to benefit) as a political party. This time round, they will have to wait for a while, in the meantime keeping the momentum by relevant rhetoric with home audiences and maneuvering between London and Brussels.

  2. Pingback: There may never be a good time to call #indyref2, but … | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy

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