In policy studies, there is a profound difference between uncertainty and ambiguity:
- Uncertainty describes a lack of knowledge or a worrying lack of confidence in one’s knowledge.
- Ambiguity describes the ability to entertain more than one interpretation of a policy problem.
Both concepts relate to ‘bounded rationality’: policymakers do not have the ability to process all information relevant to policy problems. Instead, they employ two kinds of shortcut:
- ‘Rational’. Pursuing clear goals and prioritizing certain sources of information.
- ‘Irrational’. Drawing on emotions, gut feelings, deeply held beliefs, and habits.
I make an artificially binary distinction, uncertain versus ambiguous, and relate it to another binary, rational versus irrational, to point out the pitfalls of focusing too much on one aspect of the policy process:
- Policy actors seek to resolve uncertainty by generating more information or drawing greater attention to the available information.
Actors can try to solve uncertainty by: (a) improving the quality of evidence, and (b) making sure that there are no major gaps between the supply of and demand for evidence. Relevant debates include: what counts as good evidence?, focusing on the criteria to define scientific evidence and their relationship with other forms of knowledge (such as practitioner experience and service user feedback), and what are the barriers between supply and demand?, focusing on the need for better ways to communicate.
- Policy actors seek to resolve ambiguity by focusing on one interpretation of a policy problem at the expense of another.
Actors try to solve ambiguity by exercising power to increase attention to, and support for, their favoured interpretation of a policy problem. You will find many examples of such activity spread across the 500 and 1000 words series:
- Actors combine facts with emotional appeals to draw attention to their issues, at the expense of attention to other issues in a crowded political environment.
- Actors form coalitions with people who share their beliefs. They romanticise their own cause and demonise their opponents.
- Actors tell simple stories with a hero and moral to appeal to the emotional and ideological biases of policymakers.
- Policy entrepreneurs use skills of persuasion to frame problems, make sure their favoured solutions are feasible, and exploit times when policymakers have the motive and opportunity to act.
- Dominant ways of thinking act as a lens through which we process information.
- Policymakers exploit stereotypes of target populations.
A focus on reducing uncertainty gives the impression that policymaking is a technical process in which people need to produce the best evidence and deliver it to the right people at the right time.
In contrast, a focus on reducing ambiguity gives the impression of a more complicated and political process in which actors are exercising power to compete for attention and dominance of the policy agenda. Uncertainty matters, but primarily to describe the role of a complex policymaking system in which no actor truly understands where they are or how they should exercise power to maximise their success.
Further reading:
For a longer discussion, see Fostering Evidence-informed Policy Making: Uncertainty Versus Ambiguity (PDF)
Or, if you fancy it in French: Favoriser l’élaboration de politiques publiques fondées sur des données probantes : incertitude versus ambiguïté (PDF)
The politics of evidence-based policymaking
To Bridge the Divide between Evidence and Policy: Reduce Ambiguity as Much as Uncertainty
Here is the relevant opening section in UPP:
Pingback: How far should you go to privilege evidence? 2. Policy theories, scenarios, and ethical dilemmas | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: The Politics of Evidence-Based Policymaking: ANZSOG talks | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Prevention is better than cure, so why aren’t we doing more of it? | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Evidence-based policymaking and the ‘new policy sciences’ | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Evidence-informed policymaking: context is everything | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy in 500 Words: Power and Knowledge | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy in 500 Words: the Narrative Policy Framework | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy in 500 Words: The advocacy coalition framework | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: Carol Bacchi’s (2009) WPR Approach | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis (usually) in 750 words: David Weimer and Adrian Vining (2017) Policy Analysis | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: William Riker (1986) The Art of Political Manipulation | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: Using Statistics and Explaining Risk (Sincerely) | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: Deborah Stone (2012) Policy Paradox | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy in 500 Words: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: Wil Thissen and Warren Walker (2013) Public Policy Analysis | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: William Dunn (2017) Public Policy Analysis | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 words: the old page | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: Reflecting on your role as a policy analyst | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: What can you realistically expect policymakers to do? | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: Defining policy problems and choosing solutions | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: The coronavirus and evidence-informed policy analysis (long version) | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Welcome to the Evidence & Policy blog: Our reflections on the field – Evidence & Policy Blog
Pingback: Science For Democracy
Pingback: Science For Democracy
Pingback: Policy Concepts in 1000 Words: Policy Change | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: COVID-19 policy in the UK: Did the UK Government ‘follow the science’? Reflections on SAGE meetings | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: COVID-19 policy in the UK: The role of SAGE and science advice to government | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: I am not Peter Matthews | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: How to communicate effectively with policymakers | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: power and knowledge | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy Analysis in 750 Words: How to deal with ambiguity | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Policy analysis in 750 words: WORDLE and trial and error policymaking | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Using policy theories to interpret public health case studies: the example of a minimum unit price for alcohol | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: What are the implications of complexity for policymaking and administration? | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Explaining UK Politics and Policy Making | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy
Pingback: Chapter 2. Perspectives on Policy and Policymaking | Paul Cairney: Politics & Public Policy